China as a “Developmental State” Miracle: Industrial Policy, Technological Change, and Productivity

Growth

主讲人：毛捷

时间：2017年4月6日 下午2:00-4:00

地点：3044am永利集团3044noc1305会议室

主讲人简介：

毛捷，对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院副教授、财税系副系主任。2008年于浙江大学获得经济学博士学位，2009-2011年于清华大学经济管理学院完成博士后研究，2015-2016年美国加州大学圣地亚哥分校全球政策与战略学院访问学者。兼任清华大学中国财政税收研究所、中国人民大学财税研究所兼职研究员、中国成本研究会理事。主要研究领域：政府间财政关系、税制改革、税式支出、社会保障、地方债务和金融抑制等。主讲课程：财政学、国际财政学、税收学、税收经济学、高级公共财政等。主持国家自然科学基金项目、北京市哲学社会科学规划项目等课题，并在China Economic Review、Economics Bulletin、Energy Policy、China Finance and Economic Review、《经济研究》、《管理世界》、《世界经济》、《经济学（季刊）》、《金融研究》、《中国工业经济》、《财贸经济》和《财政研究》等国内外学术期刊上发表论文40余篇。

摘要：

Existing explanations of China’s dramatic economic growth since 1978 have neglected a key piece of the China Puzzle, that is, China since 1978 has been a typical “East Asian Developmental State” (EADS) with a long socialist legacy that regularly deploys industrial and science & technology (S&T) policy to “pick winners” in key industries. Combining a unique dataset on China’s industrial policy and S&T policy with a unique dataset on firm-level performance including productivity, investment and output across various industries, we demonstrate that China’s EADS with a long socialist legacy has indeed been a key driver of China’s post-1978 economic miracle, since 2000 at least. We show that the Chinese state has been successful in “picking winners” by targeting certain industries with industrial and S&T policies, and these industries have enjoyed impressive productivity growth. Yet, whether the state can succeed in “picking winners” critically depends on the nature of an industry. When an industry is an emerging one with a rapid technological change pace, China’s industrial and S&T policies have indeed led to rapid productivity growth and by implication, significant technological catch-up in the industry. In contrast, when an industry is a fairly mature one with only slow pace of technological change, China’s industrial and S&T policies have had little effect on productivity growth. By providing the first systematic econometric study of the EADS model, our study yields important policy implications for

middle-to-large size developing countries in crafting their developmental strategies and policies.